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The classification of unmanned delivery vehicles is a dynamically developing system. With the maturity of technology, the improvement of regulations and the deepening of application, new categories and forms will continue to emerge. At present, small and medium-sized vehicles in closed/semi-closed scenarios and medium-sized vehicles at the end of urban open roads are the most active development directions.
Multi-scene integration: Vehicle design tends to adapt to multiple scenarios (such as from the park to the open road).
Modular design: Freight compartments can be replaced to adapt to different cargo needs (room temperature, refrigeration, express cabinets).
Vehicle-road coordination: Use roadside intelligent devices (RSU) to assist vehicle perception and decision-making, and improve efficiency and safety.
Regulations are gradually opened up: Countries and regions (especially some cities in China) are actively formulating and opening up the right of way for unmanned delivery vehicles.
Cost continues to decline: With technological progress and the expansion of mass production scale, the cost of sensors and complete vehicles is declining.
Operation Mode Exploration: New models such as human-vehicle collaboration (such as the delivery of unmanned vehicles to post stations/communities, and the completion of the last 100 meters by humans) and mobile retail are being tried.
Market Size Growth: In recent years, with the acceleration of autonomous driving technology and digital transformation, the market size of the driverless intelligent delivery vehicle industry has shown a significant growth trend. In 2024, China's driverless logistics vehicles have exceeded the 15,000-unit mark. It is expected that the output value of China's driverless logistics vehicle industry will increase by 43.90 billion yuan in 2025, and will jump to 594.80 billion yuan by 2030.
Application Scenario Expansion: Gradually expand from specific areas to fully open roads, becoming a useful supplement to the main transportation. The future trunk unmanned logistics transportation market has great potential, and it is estimated that it will account for 47% of the driverless logistics vehicle market by 2030.
Technology iteration and cost reduction: With continuous progress in autonomous driving technology, Internet of Things, sensor technology, etc., the performance of driverless intelligent delivery vehicles in sensing road conditions and obstacle avoidance has been greatly improved, and reliability has been enhanced. At the same time, the rapid iteration of key component technologies and localization substitution have driven down the prices of core components, prompting the supply chain system to gradually mature, and the cost of unmanned distribution vehicles has gradually declined. At present, the price of some unmanned distribution vehicles has dropped to 90,000 yuan.
Policy support: The "Intelligent Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy" jointly issued by 11 ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission and MIIT proposes that by 2025, smart vehicles with conditional autonomous driving will reach large-scale production and realize the market-oriented application of highly autonomous smart vehicles in specific environments. In November 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments jointly issued the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of Intelligent Networked Vehicles Access and Road Access", which provides policy basis and support for the development of trunk unmanned logistics transportation.
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